A government investigation panel said that the recent series of earthquakes recorded in southwestern Japan “does not scientifically affect” the chances of a magnitude 8- to 9 class Nankai Trough megaquake.

The statement comes as more than 1,600 earthquakes of intensity 1 or higher on the Japanese seismic intensity scale have been observed since June 21.

The government panel said that the quakes happening near Tokara Islands are too small in scale to have any significant impact on the potential epicenter of a Nankai Trough quake.

It also said that no changes have been observed in the anticipated epicenter for a potential Nankai Trough quake that would indicate an increased possibility of a major earthquake.

Researchers said in March 2025 that the estimated worst-case damage from the Nankai Trough megaquake could cause up to 298,000 deaths and completely destroy around 2.35 million buildings.