The Japanese government released on December 19 new damage estimates for a major earthquake that could strike the Tokyo metropolitan area within 30 years with a 70 percent probability.

The calculations assume a worst-case scenario involving a powerful shallow quake directly beneath Tokyo, registering the maximum seismic intensity of 7 in the capital and lower 6 or above over a wide area.

According to the report, the number of fatalities could reach 18,000.

Despite progress in earthquake resistance and fire prevention, the government fell short of its goal to halve estimated fatalities from its previous report 12 years ago.

The latest figure is just 5,000 lower than the 2013 projection.

The estimated economic damage has been set at 83 trillion yen.

The report also points out that in Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures, where about 30 percent of Japan’s population lives, there would be limits to administrative response as an extremely large number of people would be affected by the disaster.

It recommends that people shelter at home when emergency assistance is not required and notes the need to view disasters as a personal matter and prepare in advance.